ND is in a perfect position and have always been. They control their future.
There is a clause in the ND / ACC contract that says ND must join the ACC if they join a conference.
The questions are:
Is this tied to the media contract that expires in 2027? Is it tied to the grant of rights through 2036?
or worse, Is it independent of any of those, thus runs on its own through the expiration date (less chance it is voided)?
Okā¦so FSU + 3 others settle for how much?
Weāll see.
WELL BELOW what you stated.
Especially given that no money is guaranteed after 2027.
Noā¦the GOR and the ESPN deal are two totally different items.
The GOR states that IF a member leaves before 2036, the Conference STILL owes all media rights for the home broadcasts, through 2036ā¦even if from another Conference (B1G or SEC)
Adding SMU + CAL + Stanford was a poison pill for those with a wandering eye.
Even if they settleā¦ the 1-4 departed schools will be paying a minimum of 100s of milion each.
This is NOT the Big 12 situation, with a couple of years left in their media deal or the PAC, with no penalties
Even if 4 left, the ACC will have PLENTY of current members stay.
Unofficial but we are looking at a
P2 + M2+ G5 hierarchy.
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The question then becomes do the likely Big XII ones stay? If I am Pitt do I stick around in a 12-14 team having more obligation to go to the Bay Area or do I also jump? Not saying its an instant death but skim the top 4-6 off the next 4 aka the Big XII ones will have A Long discussion on stepping off like the PAC 4 did.
It comes down to those 4 if they want the ACC live or if they want to leave and let it die. Yes the auto trigger does not rest in the hands of the ones going to the P2, it rests in Pitt-LVille etc. Just like the trigger rested in Utahās hands for the PAC.
What the media companies want they will get unless a Don Quixote/Bowlsby puts its foot down.
IMO and for what it is worth most of you are looking at realignment with the wrong angle.
Who pays the bills?
Who has the cfp contract?
Why is it that the ncaa does not require all DIV I FBS champions go into the cfp?
Because friends it is all media driven. Did you all miss that the Dollar distribution has not been agreed on yet with the new 5/7 cfp format? Why do you think that is?
This has nothing to do with sports but Dollar figures.
This is why espn killing the acc works in espnās favor. For them it is one less mouth to feed. I will write it again. By definition espn is competing against fox, cbs and nbc.
Facts:
big 10 media contract in 2022 at $7Bās with:
cbs, fox and nbcā¦do any of you see espn in that contract?
The answer will be no.
sec media contract with espn/disney worth $7Bās.
Do you see cbs, fox and nbc in that contract?
The answer will be no.
acc media contract
ā¦with espn. cbs, fox and nbc are not involved.
Did you see the 2026/27 date?
espn has every incentives to kill the acc.
Now the question will be about where these acc schools will go or blue bloods go to?
Surely some schools could go to the sec and why by the way? sec is married to espn.
Wouldnāt it be espnās best interest to further promote the sec and the BIG12 by adding blue bloods to each.
Again espn is looking at competing against the big10 not aiding the big10. This is why I see it that the acc blue bloods will go to both sec and BIG12. espn then will restructure the BIG12 media deal to be on par with the big10 and sec. fox BIG12 other media partner will go along too.
Fact:
Back when the two newly sec schools left the BIG12 espn wanted to kill the BIG12. Then they could have added the biggest BIG12 schools to the acc beforeā¦2026/27 and restructure the acc media deal and therefore āpleaseā the acc blue bloods.
Yormark has spoken numerous times about adding UConn to the BIG12. Think about the following:
NC, Duke, Virginia, UConn added to the BIG12. We are already known as the strongest Basketball power conference. Adding these schools will make us the equivalent to the sec being known as the best football conferenceā¦BOTH ON espn. To āsweetenā the pot we could see Clemson and FSU added to the BIG12. Why you may ask? Because it gives a legit/major Football CentralWestern time zone to espn. Remember that the big10 has now Western time zone games. VT, GT, NCSt and Miami to the sec. These are football schools. The left overs will have to find a new home. This is when Cal and Stanford end up in the big10 helping the other PAC schools gone to the big10.
Why would PITT voluntarily A)pay that huge exit penalty to the ACC while also B) foreiting their penalty distrubutions from the departed to move over to the crowded Big 12 to make roughly the same media $$/ year.
There are only 2 ways the Big 12 adds ACC schools.
- The Buyout penalty is reduced to almost nothing
- So many ACC schools leave it officially terminates the conference (which is why the SMU+ CAL+ Stanford additions happened to prevent that option)
The conference doesnāt have to be āterminatedā necessarily.
If four teams leave (which has been widely forecasted), ESPN can renegotiate their TV dealā¦and without those four brandsā¦itāll most likely be LESS valuable.
At that point, the Pitts of this world may not just be making a little bit less than the Big 12, but perhaps a good bit less.
That gives some of those mid-bloods an incentive to leave as well.
But the conference still owns their home "tv rights " through 2036ā¦even if its the bigger payouts from the P2 conferences.
Based on the ACCās most recent filings, itās possible for a team to ābuy backā their rights.
That seems to be their acknowledgment that they are willing to settle.
And like any other negotiated settlementā¦itāll be for WAY LESS than the total value.
As I saidā¦if FSU can do itā¦then so can other schools.
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Yesā¦and that ābuy back feeā for 12 years is going to be steep.
The remaining ACC schools get a portion of the fee so its not a straight Apples to Apples comparison when you talk about ditching the ACC for a lateral move to the Big 12.
Those non P2 worthy ACC schools will LOSE money by making such a move.
Theyll have to negotiate their own buyout + foreit their buyout portion from the P2 departures + prorated media $$ the Big 12 offers them.
Most of you keep looking at realignment from a schoolās point of view.
Look at it from media point of view. There realignments will make more sense to you.
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- FSU hasnāt negotiated squatā¦only hollow threats
- IF they negotiate its still going to be hundreds of millionsā¦but thatās a big IF
Weāll see.
STAY TUNED!!!
I donāt see many pundits predicting that they wonāt leave. And if they can, then as I said, others can as well.
Are you referring to āpunditsā or the reality of FSU grasping for straws after YEARS of looking for an out yet continuing to swing and miss.
Also, notice how there are ZERO other ACC schools trying to help FSU find an out to allow the flood gates to open.
Quite the contraryā¦they VOTED to EXPAND the conference!!!
ā¦but keep talking about your āpunditsā whose job it is to stir the pot.
Iāll keep living in reality.
They are all taking a āwait and see approach,ā and are likely hopeful that FSU prevails so that they can get a better deal as well.
Weāll see.
Sure, they are!
That āwait and seeā approach really worked for the PAC commissioner in getting a groundbreaking TV deal.
Meanwhile, the rest of the ACC says āscrew FSUā we ARE EXPANDING!!
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Not hearing that from any pundit, but anything is possible.
This article was from 2012. Since then they hocked their conference to ESPN until 2036 for the ACC network.