It means they survive and in my estimation, no schools from the pac are coming to the big 12.
This levels the playing field completely.
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it’s the life boat they were looking for- they can now stay at 10 since their conference has an automatic path to the playoff
Maybe, but if the GOR is more robust and there is more guaranteed money to be had in the Big 12, you could still see 4 corners jump. But this has me thinking that this was very sudden and pushed by the networks because of the P12 disbanded then there wasn’t enough late time slot content to run.
OUT may regret going to the SEC. Arguably, their kids have a higher probability seeing UH go to the CFP more often than their parents teams.
Same for USCLA
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Rice has a better chance to get into playoff than UT and A&M.
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This may also reduce the chances of ND going to the B1G.
While ND could certainly make more money in the B1G, their chances of making the playoffs may be better as an Independent. Given their sheer hype and typical high (sometimes unjustifiably high) nationally ranking, they’d be a virtual given as an Independent at-large bid to the playoffs nearly every year.
They would not have the same chances in the B1G, where they would only occasionally be the conference champ, and might not even be that conference’s best at large hope most seasons.
The PAC12 will survive if we poach them or not.
The PAC is now more likely to survive.
Why?
Because even if they are raided, they can still rebuild with G5s in the hope that their champion will still be one of the six highest ranked at the end of the regular season, and might still get a playoff bid.
But that is in no way immunization against a raid.
Other conferences that can provide better TV money will still be hard for most current PAC schools to resist an invite to, should one come down.
Not perfect, but pretty darn good, to me.
What gives, when does the bottom drop out? Is there a planet killer asteroid coming toward the Earth?
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SMU probably has a better chance than we do.
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Yes IF the next B12 TV deals must have more inventory to get the numbers the B12 want.
New B12 looking good for 2 spots (more in a good year) yearly regardless and that is good news.
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it shouldn’t…they just decreased their probability at making the playoff.
They aren’t even eligible for 50% of the qualifying pots because they aren’t in a conference.
They’d have to definitely finish inside the top12 as that is their only path.
We, by comparison, have 2 paths. Say an undefeated UH loses to an undefeated Big 12 opponent in the Championship- we will still get an ‘at large’ spot since our only loss would be to probably a top 4 opponent and since we play a P5 schedule.
There are 12 NY6 slots and will be 12 playoff spots. Both with 6 conference champs.
We don’t have to speculate too hard on what inclusion is going to look like, roughly speaking.
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They co-drafted the plan. I think they are happy with their playoff access.
That’s my point though.
ND would only occasionally be the B1G champ, and only occasionally be the runner-up. That hurts their chances of making the playoffs.
By contrast, as an independent, given how they are often have an unjustifiably high ranking, and can rig their schedule to ensure more wins, they have a better chance of finishing high enough to get an at-large bid.
They are always overrated so let’s see how this chapter of their program goes.
IF they make the playoff, they won’t be able to hide from quality teams.
If this expansion includes G5 teams, then there is literally no point of having power conferences
In fact, it’s probably more of a benefit to be a G5 if it includes G5…
You could a Texas Southern, recruit 5 stars, play an easy schedule, and win your conference
Auto bid
It does, but remember, only the SIX HIGHEST RANKED conference champions will get auto bids.
The likelihood that more than one G5 conference champ will be among those six is virtually nil, though I guess it’s not a categorical impossibility.
Without USC & UCLA, the Pac-12 champ will hardly ever make it. It’s not a surprise that this expansion took place after the SEC and Big took what they wanted.
Then end result is: SEC and Big champs will always make it, and Pac, ACC, and Big 12 will fight it out. I suspect all the big conferences will eliminate their championship games. The smaller conferences, like the Sun Belt should keep theirs.
SEC and Big will dominate at-large bids just like in other sports.