Supposedly, there is momentum building to expand… NOW.
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ACC and Pac-12 have seen their lives flash before their eyes.
The questions are what the Big Ten thinks and if the SEC has fully changed its mind.
It does seem like “We don’t have time to discuss it” may be the only way it actually happens.
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Question is how disadvantaged will the pac12 be at 10 schools and big12 at 12 schools. Surely , these two will not have the same slice of the pie as BIG and SEC at 16 schools each.
This expansion if approved, will probably trigger movement between the pac12 and big12 to get to 16 schools same at the major 2.
My guess is that it will scale directly between 10 and 16. So the Pac-10 would get less money but not on a per-team basis. which would allow them to expand, but not encourage it. (I think the current CFP does something like this?)
I don’t offhand think that this is going to be set up to encourage raids. If anything, it will discourage SEC or Big Ten from going above 16 (a sort of pact between the SEC and Big Ten to stay where they are).
Given the timing and who the players are, the same players driving realignment. The issue holding up playoff expansion is that of autobids, seems to me.
If expansion happens now it will be without auto-bids, I’d bet. Every conference not the BIG/SEC should oppose expansion without auto-bids.
Without automatic bids for conference champions, there will never be a true playoff and the system will always be rigged to line the pockets of the SEC and BIG who are gobbling up the brands/histories that they want to justify locking everyone else out.
Being reported a 12 team playoff has been agreed upon.
Sources: The CFP Board of Managers has decided on a 12-team College Football Playoff during today’s meeting.
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Looks like not until 2026, though.
I want to know if they agreed to the 12-team model, or an agreement to try to come up with a 12-team model. Big, big difference.
https://twitter.com/PeteThamel/status/1565776964677279745
UPDATE:
This is the answer I was hoping for.
https://twitter.com/NicoleAuerbach/status/1565778316321226753
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Big day for college football’s future… 12 team with 6 highest ranked conference champs gives teams in other conferences a chance even though at large-bids will probably be dominated by SEC/BIG!0
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https://twitter.com/UnnecRoughness/status/1565778778651074567?s=20&t=9q4wzk4noLdNvVLiBRK7zQ
SEC- 1 champ and 2 at large => 3 teams
Big 10- 1 champ and 2 at large => 3 teams
Big12 -1 champ and 1 at large => 2 teams
ACC- 1 champ
Pac- 1 champ
AAC -1 champ
Independent -1 ND at large
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Potentially, a big win for the Pac 12, MWC, AAC, Sun Belt, MAC etc. I assume a committee will choose the at-large teams like basketball and recent football playoffs.
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It’s a win for us, too. I don’t think we needed autobids, but there were a lot of potential playoff models that would have been very bad for us.
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Yea a big win for G5 since it guarantees a place in the playoff, AAC has been dominating it for the most part… But we might see Memphis/SMU/San Diego State/ Boise in the playoffs. Hopefully, we do well in the Big 12 by 2026… If not, Gotta hear from Memphis on how they made the playoffs before us lol
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My sources tell me that it will break down like this:
5 automatic seeds for the B10
5 automatic seeds for the SEC
1 seed for the highest ranked team in the PAC/B12/ACC/G5
1 automatic seed for ND
If ND isn’t ranked in the top 12 then the seed goes to the next highest ranked team in the B10/SEC
(My sources also tell me the SEC is threatening to block the move because its unfair to them)
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Finally a move for the greater good that gives everyone in FBS a shot.
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The SEC should get the first 8 bids and the remaining 4 go to Texas, ND, OSU, and USC
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With this news, do we want to expand now?
If the Big 12 Champion gets an Automatic spot in the playoff, the odds are currently 1 in 12 shot because we have 12 members.
If we add 4-8 more schools, we decrease each school’s chance of making the playoff to 1 in 16 or 1 in 16+
What does this do to PAC 12 survival?
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