In the PAC official statement from yesterday, they said that they won’t expand with any new schools until they conclude a media deal.
Why would a network partner with a PAC with a deal that’s anywhere close to the Big 12 without knowing who they’re planning to expand with? At the same time, why would any G5 school risk paying an extremely expensive exit fee without knowing the details of a media deal before the PAC signs off on it?
The whole situation is unwinnable. No G5 school, not even SDSU, will be able to replace Colorado as a brand regardless of recent athletic success. Oregon and Washington are not going to take a deal where they make less than what they make in the Big 12 UNLESS they get no exit fee should they get a B1G invite.
That said, that leaves 2 more questions:
Why would any network offer the PAC a media deal if UO/UW just end up leaving?
Why would any G5 schools pay exit fees if the conference is going to lose P5 status as soon as UO/UW leave?
There’s too much risk involved for the PAC to survive. It’s over PAC. I’m sorry.
Keep in mind that the media rights deal for the Big 12 actually went up about 40% with UH, BYU, Cincinnati, and UCF and without Texas and Oklahoma. If you were to add Oregon, Washington, Arizona, and Colorado to the other four new schools, I think you could make the argument that UT and OU were successfully replaced or very close to it.
Junior is a legend in DFW sports talk. He helped originate KTCK The Ticket which helped revolutionize “sports” talk. I put that in quotes because its guy talk as much as sports talk.
He’s mostly a pro sports guy, but he follows college more than most on the station. Most of his focus is UNT (his alma mater) and OU (his childhood team).
“Take a seat, University of Houston. Grab some popcorn and a soda. Put your feet up and watch the drama unfold.
“Look out the windows from your new, spacious Big 12 penthouse — just 29 days since move-in so we’ll forgive if boxes are not yet unpacked — and you can see the Appalachian Mountains and Magic Kingdom to the east and the Fort Worth Stockyards and Great Plains to the north. Enjoy the picturesque Rocky Mountains to the west. Could a desert view be next?
“No amount of money could have bought this view two years ago…
“Life is good as one of the newest members of the Big 12…
“What if the Cougars instead had secured a long-coveted Power Five spot in the Pac-12? Imagine waiting more than two decades — since the breakup of the Southwest Conference in 1996 — to join a league that a few years later is on life support. The Pac-12 certainly has a different look with UCLA and USC set to join the Big Ten in 2024. And with Colorado leaving, the Pac-12 is down to nine schools for next season…”
Thought 1:
The PAC is going to negotiate their media deal first before adding teams - so they can ask how much value different teams have on their deal before signing it and making expansion decisions.
Thought 2:
Yes, take Oregon and Washington and give them an easier out to the B1G only for a select time period such as before 2031. That way we still knock out the PAC. Utah and Az St will be fine waiting in the MWC until there is room for them. Plus if the B1G does not invite them, then they are B1G 12 schools for the long term. (I also do not think Oregon will get the invite to the B1G, but Washington is a perfect match to the B1G).
Disagree, if they join, they join under the same terms as everyone else. If they decide to leave later, they should be subjected to same penalties like everyone else.
There should be no special treatment for any school joining other than prorata terms dictated by contract with espn/fox.
How can they make a TV deal with SDSU as the add when they probably won’t be available until 2026? Their MWC early exit fee went from $17mm to $34mm when they prematurely announced their exit from the conference. MWC will not negotiate with them. SDSU doesn’t have $34mm to get into the conference in 2024.
Hard to have a media deal that includes a program that won’t be in the conference the first two years of the new contract.
I just do not see a point in showing the same ego and arrogance the PAC has shown. Treat them as guest for a few years, get the exposure and value added to the Big 12 and move on. Otherwise they could maintain the PAC until the next round of realignment and the PAC may be strong in the next 5 years, as we do not know the future. Why risk it over ego?
It is very simple. Pac says to media provider What is the amount you are offering? How much would that change if we expand with this school or that school? The media provider replies with $xxx for the 9 teams, and it will change by $x if you invite this team or that team.
Pac nows says: that is good information
Pac then goes to SDSU and says if you apply we will accept you since the contract will have this value. or they go to SMU and say, thank you for your interest, but since the media deal drops by $x we will not accept your application.
SDSU says that is not enough, so the PAC goes back to media provider and says we have the 9 team conference, lets sign.
or SDSU says that is good. We will join in two years. Pac goes to media provider and says we will have 9 teams next year and SDSU starting the year after so the value will adjust after the second year.
I don’t have think it’s about ego. It’s about cohesion within the conference. The conference has had its experiences with a prima donna in Texas . A special curvout joinder agreement with Oregon or Washington, would inherently create another Texas. The conference would become mired in quicksand toxicity .
Yormack said he wants schools that are intentional, that want to be in the conference. The case being , they would abide with existing bylaws like everyone else.
Honestly, my guess is Oregon and Washington, will ultimately default to the big12. I think both the BIG and SEC, have become too bloated at 16 each. It’s a logistical nightmare managing that many schools.
2 Likes
WheelerBoy
(Stick it in your pipe and smoke it!)
4183
If a decent term GOR is signed with the remaining 9 schools (big “if”), then SDSU could easily afford the 34M buy-out. Hell they couldn’t afford not to. They prolly bring in additional 10M+ per year.
