The history of 3 seeds vs 2 seeds isn’t good for the 3.
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Here’s a good one:
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We have a better chance than Kentucky or North Carolina? I am flattered but…
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I think GSU will pose a bigger matchup problem than the second round teams. They shoot well from the perimeter and don’t rely on interior play to win. The cougars are good at double teaming interiors players but more vulnerable to teams that shoot well from the outside. Case in point, the guards for Cincy and UCF went off when we lost.
There is a difference between playing interiors well and not having to play interiors well because none exist.
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We’re pretty efficient defending shooters. Cincy and UCF shooters went off because they have significant low post threats that we couldn’t slag off from. If GSU doesn’t have a post presence means we can press their shooters more when they’re in range of the 3pt line and jam them up.
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Just watched the breakdown on CBS Sports with Vegas insiders. UH talk starts around 9:30. Todd Furhman puts us on level ground with Kentucky. Says whoever wins the Sweet 16 matchup between UH and UK has an excellent chance to punch a ticket to the Final Four.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/video/expert-bracket-breakdown-from-cbs-sports-hq/
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I don’t agree with your analysis.
Collin Smith (6’11" forward) went off on us when UCF beat us. We held BJ Taylor to 11 points and 8 of those were at the line. That was also one of the few games we were outrebounded. UCF only hit 5 3’s in that game.
Cincy was also a rare game we were outrebounded. Cumberland went off on us, but that was mostly going to the rack and mid range. He only hit one 3 and Cincy only hit 6 3’s total in that game. Broome hitting a few off the bench did give them a spark though.
Also, for what it’s worth, Iowa State’s two leading scorers are guards who shoot over 38% from 3. I am way, way, way more worried about Iowa State (if they win) than Georgia State. We should roll Georgia State, though it’s March and anything can happen.
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That is not true at all. UH has one of the best statistical defenses against the three-pointer in the country. There is no way that GSU will be able to battle on the boards as we do. Some fans are looking for weaknesses on this team where there is not one. We beat LSU, Oregon, OSU, and BYU because of good defense and rebounding.
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I MUCH prefer to play guard-centric teams rather than center/forward centric teams. Our guards are some of the best defenders in the nation. Cumberland went off on us because (a) he’s a terrific player, and (b) he could not miss in that championship game. Our guards will make other guards have to work extra hard to score. If GSU wants to sit outside and bomb from 3 point land, let them. We’ll win that game easily. That’s what Memphis tried to do in the first half against us and that’s why we destroyed them in the first half. When they started driving and getting to the hoop in the second half coupled with us abandoning our aggressive offense in favor of a run-out-the-clock quagmire offense, that’s when they started being more successful against our defense. That won’t happen in the tourney and I believe that’s because we won’t be playing 3 games in 3 days from here on out, so no need to preserve energy.
We’re going to struggle in this tourney when we have to face off against a team with a truly skilled big man. A center with skills will get all our bigs in foul trouble which is going to suck.
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Gotta feeling we will lose to Georgia State. Just a feeling. Bad thing is my feelings are normally right.
I can only imagine that the Georgia State coaches have been waking up in cold sweats trying to figure out how to figure out Houston. We pose a very unique problem from the offensive and defensive ends…something that they’ve not seen before…and will only have five days to prepare for.
As for our losses…we lost those games to teams and coaching staffs that have had a few years of exposure and experience against to prepare for. And even then, it was an uphill dogfight to take us down.
If we are even slightly on our game, Georgia State is going to be running into a buzzsaw of the likes they’ve never seen before. We are not Georgia. We are not Alabama. We are Air Guitar!!!
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You can get off the edge of the cliff. Have you watched many games? This team plays with an intensity and Sampson has this teams head straight. There is a reason we only lost three games. Honestly losing to GSU would be a choke job and would be bad for the resurgent direction of the program. The players will tell you that losing in the first round would be a failure of a season.
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I somewhat agree, though I think Cumberland’s success may have exposed a little bit of a weakness against tall physical guards who can score from all over the court against our smaller guards. If the matchup with Kentucky ultimately happens I could possibly see Keldon Johnson causing some problems, though Cumberland is two years older, with two more years of college S&C and is a better player right now.
Iowa State’s two best players are smaller guards for what it’s worth.
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I also just saw something where Corey said his legs were already heavy before he took an elbow to his hip. After that he couldn’t move and defend like he normally does. I think 3 games in 3 days is too much for a team that plays as hard as our guys do. Thankfully they won’t see that schedule the rest of the way.
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…enjoy what the experts are saying…
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Well, I got a feeling we will win big…one of us will be wrong.
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After reading that GSU is a terrible rebounding team and terrible at defending the 3, I think we win this one by more than 15.
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That was probably part of it, but I think the combination of Cumberland’s game and size is a little bit of a chink in the armor of our phenomenal perimeter defense.
Cumberland scored 27 points on us at Fertitta. Granted, it took him 25 shots, but I think he missed like 7 of his last 8 because he started really trying to force it. I also think we switched Nate on him for awhile when Corey was having trouble with him.
Cumberland also dropped 20 on us at Cincy.
Fortunately, I don’t think there are many players like Cumberland that are as good as him. Maybe Culver at Tech. UNC has a couple of tall guards, but I don’t think they are as physical.
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