The Matchup: Duke vs Houston

Basketball
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Duke Blue Devils 2024-25 Team Preview

Roster Lookup

Starters

  1. Tyrese Proctor (G)
  • Height/Class: 6-6, Junior
  • Key Stats: 12.5 PPG, 3.1 REB, 41.2% 3PT, 29.8 MPG
  1. Kon Knueppel (G)
  • Height/Class: 6-7, Freshman
  • Key Stats: 14.4 PPG, 3.9 REB, 40.1% 3PT, 30.2 MPG
  1. Sion James (G)
  • Height/Class: 6-6 220lbs, Junior
  • Key Stats: 8.7 PPG, 4.2 REB, 41.7% 3PT, 25.4 MPG
  1. Cooper Flagg (F) Generational Player
  • Height/Class: 6-9 205lbs, Freshman
  • Key Stats: 18.9 PPG, 7.5 REB, 4.6 AST, 37.4% 3PT, 30.5 MPG
  1. Khaman Maluach (C)
  • Height/Class: 7-2 250lbs, Freshman
  • Key Stats: 8.7 PPG, 6.8 REB, 25.0% 3PT, 21.3 MPG

Bench

  1. Isaiah Evans (G)
  • Height/Class: 6-6, Freshman
  • Key Stats: 7.0 PPG, 1.2 REB, 41.6% 3PT, 14.1 MPG
  1. Caleb Foster (G)
  • Height/Class: 6-5, Sophomore
  • Key Stats: 5.1 PPG, 1.6 REB, 34.2% 3PT, 14.0 MPG
  1. Mason Gillis (F)
  • Height/Class: 6-6, Senior
  • Key Stats: 4.2 PPG, 2.6 REB, 34.4% 3PT, 15.0 MPG
  1. Patrick Ngongba II (C)
  • Height/Class: 6-11, Freshman
  • Key Stats: 4.0 PPG, 2.8 REB, 0.0% 3PT, 10.8 MPG
  1. Maliq Brown (F)
  • Height/Class: 6-8, Junior
  • Key Stats: 2.4 PPG, 3.7 REB, 33.3% 3PT, 15.8 MPG

Duke Team Breakdown

Strengths

  1. Positional Size Advantage
  • 6-9 Cooper Flagg (F), 6-7 Kon Knueppel (G), and 7-2 Khaman Maluach (C) create mismatches. Guards like Proctor (6-6) and James (6-6) also tower over most backcourts.
  • Enhances switchability on defense and high-percentage shooting over smaller defenders.
  1. Elite Shooting Efficiency
  • #3 in Effective FG% (58.2%), #8 in 3P% (38.6%). Starters shoot 37-41% from deep, spacing the floor.
  1. Lockdown Defense
  • #1 in Opponent Effective FG% (44.4%). Maluach (1.3 BPG) and Flagg (1.3 BPG) anchor the paint.
  1. Ball Security
  • #3 in Assist/Turnover Ratio (1.81). Flagg (4.6 APG) minimize mistakes.

Weaknesses

  1. No True Point Guard
  • Tyrese Proctor (2.2 APG) and Cooper Flagg (4.2 APG) handle playmaking, but lack a traditional floor general.
  1. Bench Depth & Consistency
  • Bench averages 14-16 MPG and contributes just 19.4% of scoring (adding the context most of their games have been blowouts, where end of game minutes are available). Over-reliance on freshmen starters. They are Deep but Centralized most of the minutes on just the starters.
  1. Age & Experience
  • The core of the team is centralized around freshmen.
  1. Not Real Weaknesses But Might Be in the Context of a Battle of Elites
  • Hard to Call being top 140 in something (out 364) a “weakness”, but they do give up a relative amount of offensive rebounds, and They don’t create than much turnovers.

Overall Outlook

From both a statistical and “eye test” standpoint, this game appears tough for us to win. Most analytics favor Duke, and visually they boast three potential lottery picks—one of whom is often described as a “generational” talent. Everyone in their rotation has great size, and they’ve been blowing out most of their opponents. It’s easy to see why many people lean toward Duke.

Houston’s Advantages

  1. Home-State Advantage
  • The game will be in San Antonio, which should give us a meaningful crowd advantage.
  • This is the first Final Four in Texas with a Texas team participating, so even the more casual local fans could naturally root for us.
  1. Style of Defense
  • Duke’s offense has looked phenomenal, but it hasn’t faced a defense anywhere near our level. Like no one even in our stratosphere
  • The few “good” defenses they’ve seen (teams like Auburn or Arizona) play at a faster pace, allowing more transition opportunities. Duke hasn’t yet encountered a truly imposing, slow-tempo, half-court defense with our level of physicality.
  • We’ve shown time and again we can force opponents into our style of play and pace… uncomfortable.

Duke’s Offense vs. Our Defense

  • Duke doesn’t have a traditional point guard orchestrating everything, which could really benefit our hedge-and-trap schemes.

  • However, their offense often runs through cooper on the perimeter as a forward, which is something we haven’t faced much. That will require adjustments in how we trap.

  • A unique thought: if we treat Cooper like a guard and Sion James like a forward, they start to resemble a BYU team we faced before (they had a 6’9" lottery-type point guard who could pass Egor, plus an athletic strong shooting power forward Mawot). We crushed them, which could be encouraging as a blueprint.

  • I trust Sampson to make whatever adjustments needed, based on what he has seen

  • Beyond any X’s and O’s, the biggest key is making them feel pressured and uncomfortable for all 40 minutes. As Hunter Dickinson recently mentioned in his new TV job, Houston forces you into quick decisions. No matter how talented Duke’s freshmen are, they’re still freshmen, and without a true PG to settle things.

  • If they’re allowed to run their offense comfortably, we’re likely to lose. But our program is built on unsettling opposing offenses—and Duke hasn’t seen this level of intensity yet.

Our Offense vs. Their Defense

  • Duke’s defense isn’t complex. It’s mostly built on length and athleticism—6’6” defenders on the perimeter and elite shot blockers protecting the rim. They play mostly man-to-man, try to fight through screens, and switch when needed. I expect our guys to find little windows to shoot, like off screens or transition etc. NOTE: they will switch to a full court zone from time to time like we’ve seen the last few games

  • Flagg is an elite defender—great bounce, instincts, and switchability—but he’s still 205 lbs. If that’s the matchup, J’Wan is bullying him in the post. Duke sometimes hides Cooper by having him defend the 3 when playing against physical forwards and uses Sion James (stronger at 6’6”, 220 lbs) at the 4. Even then, I’d expect J’Wan to win that matchup against Sion more often than not.

  • Given the stakes and the intensity we play with, I’d be surprised if we’re not crashing the boards hard and getting a few offensive rebounds for second-chance points.

  • If our defensive pressure translates into turnovers, we might score some transition points.

  • We should be able to reach around 68 points on a normal shooting night—assuming we aren’t ice-cold like in the Purdue game. The real question: will 68 be enough?

Other Thoughts

  1. Motivation & Mindset
  • Everyone will be fired up for a Final Four, but last year’s ending still stings, and we’d love some get-back in this situation.
  1. Duke’s Lack of Close-Game Reps
  • They’ve typically blown teams out and haven’t had to close out many tight games. All their “close game” wins were big leads by them turned semi-close by late runs. The only real back-and-forth close games late? Losses… So if we can keep it close, we could see an advantage in crunch-time execution.
  1. Foul Trouble
  • Duke is good at drawing fouls, and we’ll be pressuring them heavily, so officiating could play a major role. Hopefully, the Texas crowd and atmosphere lean in our favor.

Prediction

  • If Duke Feels Comfortable: If they run their offense smoothly, letting Cooper pick us apart and find open shooters, we probably lose by around 10 (with us cutting the lead late).
  • If We Impose Our Culture: If we successfully harass them with our physical defense, force hurried decisions, and maintain that intensity for 40 minutes, we can win by about 8.

I don’t think it’ll be a nail-biter. One team will win comfortably-ish. Either their freshmen are overwhelmed by our defensive intensity… or they’re unfazed and scoring at a rate we can’t keep up with.

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tldr… just rushed down to get 1st like but somebody beat me to it

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Duke is the #1 team analytically but, like pesik said, once you are putting the elite versus the elite, anything can happen. I look to our experienced guys to really set the tone and dictate the game. Hopefully we get good shooting performances from our 3 guards!

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Awesome breakdown!

  1. Who do you think we put Lj on and do you think he can be effective given he’ll be the smallest guy on the court?

  2. Do you think this we’ll be a game where Terrance sees a lot more playing time because of his length?

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likely on Proctor, Proctor is taller but only 180, LJ is smaller but stockier, has 20lbs on Proctor to try and make him uncomfortable…maybe also on Knueppel… look at the byu game, where lj was defending with his chest getting physical … he defended Richie saunders really well (6’5 leading scorer for byu)

Terrance is 100% playing heavy minutes…even if not for his size, Terrance can play the 4 this game… and if we get in foul trouble on the bigs, he is definitely subbing in
or if we are struggling with jwan at the perimeter with flagg and they are just scoring, i can see us giving terrence the cooper assignment to see if that makes a difference

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It really is up to us UH fans to show up Saturday and make that arena feel like a UH home game.

We can impact the game greatly and help the team

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No excuse to not be there. 3 hour drive.

Some of ya’ll spend 3 hours in Houston traffic every day! :joy:

I just hope nobody takes these historic Sampson teams for granted and we show up big.

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As the late game, I bet the early game winner’s fans will be hard rooting against Dook. Probably the losing teams fans too, honestly

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I could see our “small” lineup from yesterday being pretty effective against Duke - Sharp, LJ, Uzan/Mylik, TA, Francis/Tugler, particularly if Mylik and TA are hitting shots.

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Duke starts three freshman. You wonder how those freshman are going to react in such a big game and the suffocating UH defense. If Duke scouts the UH vs Tennessee game, they will see Tennessee completely collapse to UH’s pressure.

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Found this amazing nuggert on a podcast i was just listening too

from the clip:
No Team has ever won a National Title playing the highest seed Possible every Round. IF we win the title we will be the 1st.

then add:
The Zags were the most underseeded team in kenpom history.

That we then had to Play Purdue in Indianapolis despite the 1 seed.

The toughest Final 4 lineup in kenpom History. this could be the hardest title path in NCAA history

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we’ll see after the record number of portal players find new teams though if it doesn’t get instantly broken next year i kinda see that distinction lasting for a while ngl

ontop of the covid year players still being around, a bunch of the second weekend teams had portal gets who played for their current team for a second year like sears, cryer, and clayton

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Going back thru their schedule, it doesn’t appear they’ve played a top 20 defense in some time. And there is a big difference between #2 and us and a massive divide between the Coogs and #20.

It’s an interesting matchup to say the least.

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I think this comes down to Jojo on Flagg. This kid can score at all three levels, and they’ll certainly try to iso him quite a bit. If Jojo can’t keep him in front of him, Jojo is going to get in foul trouble real quick.

The other concern is if we double Flagg he’s a really good passer and they’re going to get a lot of really clean looks at 3s when he kicks it out. They shoot the 3 really good (specifically Proctor + Knueppel).

If we have to go small with TA on Flagg, I think this will hurt our rebounding significantly (both defensively + offensively). They already have a height advantage on our guards. TA may do a better job of keeping Flagg in front of him, however they’ll most definitely try to iso Flagg down in the block where he would over power him so we’d be forced to double him and again he’s a good passer so they’ll get some wide open looks at 3s.

They will get good looks but do they knock them down? If they are knocking them down at a high clip they’re going to be really hard to beat.

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I’m learning about Duke via this breakdown. I didn’t realize they didn’t have a true point guard, and 3 of 5 starters were freshman.

Go Coogs!

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The one thing I’m hoping is the refs let’s them play. If they call it close, that won’t be good for us.

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The player that guards Flagg needs to be disciplined on defense, which is not Tugler. My guess is UH will rotate on Flagg. I’m sure a good part of this week’s preparation is to reinforce how the coaching staff wants to defend Duke to limit foul trouble.

If referees let the teams play, that works to UH’s advantage.

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Great breakdown @pesik , you nailed our team well and I see why the board looks to you for these matchup posts before games. One note – I would not put Cryer on Knueppel, as our team will hunt that matchup aggressively. Knueppel is fantastic at creating advantages and bullying smaller guys in the post. He’s our best guard at this and makes great reads.

Proctor’s game is more finesse and I think LJ is better suited to match up with him. But also Cryer on Sion James. Sion is built like a LB but has struggled at times this year to convert this advantage. He also does not shoot over defenders, whereas Proctor is more of a gunner. We also look for Sion less on offense, so LJ would be put in fewer ballscreen actions.

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I like to look at that 20-21 Gonzaga team, everybody picked them to win it all until Baylor punched them in the face and took the title.

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Sion James was hitting 3s from the left corner against Alabama, if I am not mistaken.