I wouldn’t pay too much heed to the prognosticators – they are simplifying what should be an amazing chess match between two great teams. Here are 4 things I would watch for:
How tightly is the game being refereed? Both of our defenses are physical. We really struggled with UNC and Arizona with a very tight whistle. It makes us extremely tentative. Flagg in particular draws a LOT of fouls on drives, but the UH defense really limits dribble penetration. This also takes away one of our most potent actions – screen and roll with our 7’2" big man Maluach.
Can Sion James and Tyrese Proctor help steady the Duke team? James played (& lost to) Houston 8 times while at Tulane before transferring to Duke. And Proctor played you guys last year. I know Houston is going to punch Duke in the mouth in the first 10 minutes. Can Houston get to the under 12 timeout with separation?
How will Cryer, Sharp and Uzan contend with our backcourt length? We start a guard rotation that is 6’6, 6’6, and 6’7 – many teams (see Alabama) with shorter guards really struggle. Just like you, we do a good job chasing teams off the 3 point line and funneling into our big back line.
Can Houston win the offensive rebounding battle? We have been susceptible to getting beat on the O boards. Our 7’2" center has a high center of gravity and, while Francis / Roberts / Tugler are “shorter”, they’re incredibly solid, long and can move him off his spot. If Maluach struggles, it takes away Duke’s primary lob threat.
After we lost to Bama in Vegas I played poker with some Duke fans (that was the same night yall lost to Kansas). Nice guys, not that good of poker players though. Anyway we both wished that we’d meet in the tourney for a rematch. Funny how fate works. Congrats on y’all’s season. Y’all are definitely the team to beat but we’re gunning for ya. Looking forward to the rematch and best of luck.
Certainly a better analysis of the game versus mine. However we have our own genius evaluator in Pesik who will provide a breakdown from the UH perspective. I do know that Maluach caused all kinds of missed layups due to his presence. My thoughts are that someone does a Nancy Kerrigan (ice skating attack) on him before we meet y’all. That would help our chances a great deal.
UH Losses:
-5.5 vs Auburn on 11/9
-3.5 vs Alabama on 11/26 (OT)
-13.5 vs. SDSU on 11/30 (OT)
-9.5 vs. TT on 2/1 (OT)
Duke Losses
-5.5 vs Kentucky 11/12
-3.5 @ Kansas on 11/26
-6.5 @ Clemson on 2/8
Their losses to Kentucky and Kansas were just like our losses to Auburn, Alabama, and SDSU, early in the season.
Early February was the last loss for both teams. Duke lost at Clemson (who lost to McNeese St. in the 1st round). Houston lost in overtime at Fertitta Center to Texas Tech (who made it to the Elite 8).
UH becomes the 7th program to make multiple final fours in three different decades (Louisville makes 8 but a couple of their F4’s were stripped). The list is UNC, UK, UCLA, KU, Duke, UConn, and UH. ELITE company!
Each team has lost once since December began. Each is 30-1 after November ended. Each went 19-1 in their conference, and won their conference tournament.
Now, the Big 12 was a lot stronger than the ACC. The average KenPom Rank for Duke’s ACC foes was 91 vs. 47 for Houston’s foes. To give you an idea, the #47 team is rated at +16 and change. The #91 team is rated at +8 and change. These ratings are per 100 possessions. There are about 70 possessions in a game, so this worth about 5.5 points on a neutral floor.
You can see this schedule difference in the average margin of victory. Duke vs. the ACC was 19.8 points per game. Houston vs. the Big 12 was 12.6 points per game.
And Houston has had a harder road to the Final Four. The average KenPom rank of Houston’s last 3 NCAA tournament wins is 10 vs 16 for Duke.
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The key is to keep have a lead or it close down the stretch. Duke is 2-3 in games decided by six points or less. They simply have not had many close games (only two since Dec 5), and they’ve lost more than they’ve won when they have them.
Houston is 7-4 in games decided by six points or less, and 7-1 starting with the UCF game on Jan 18.
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Duke has a hotshot young coach and roster for of McDonald’s All-Americans. Houston has a veteran coach with veteran players. Houston probably wins last year if Shead does not get hurt. Such an interesting match up.
For me the main thing is we need to keep it close especially early. The last thing we need is to go down 15-4 or something at the start and be chasing a 10+ point deficit much of the game. That won’t bode well for us being a defensively dominated team against their offensive barrage.
The other main thing is stay out of foul trouble but I have a sneaking suspicion that will be a BIG problem for us this game we will have to overcome
Our most likely path to victory is if the refs mostly swallow the whistle and we can muddy it up as much as possible while staying out of foul trouble. Our experience and ability to get hot from 3 can then give us a chance.
Auburn certainly WAS (formerly) considered the top team for most of the season by “the experts”.
That clearly changed consensus-wise in the last month. I think you are operating on outdated information. Try to keep up!
The latest Vegas odds:
Duke +105
Florida +275
Houston +450
Auburn +500. (this means least favorite of the 4)
That obviously doesn’t mean it will pan out that way. But the “favorite” isn’t usually picked LAST in the Vegas odds!
Here’s the latest Kenpom:
1 Duke
2 Houston
3 Florida
4 Auburn
And to be clear, I do think any of these 4 can win it all. AND… I’m dying to see our Coogs finally beak through and win it all. i like our chances, I just don’t think its a given. And I don’t think Auburn is the favorite over Duke.
I’ve always liked Duke, starting with both the Hills, Hurley, and Laettner, and I’ve followed them ever since. But the media has hyped this current team way beyond what they’ve actually shown. During this year’s tournament, aside from Alabama, their competition hasn’t been strong. And while Alabama missed a lot of shots and got beat down, that alone doesn’t make Duke a dominant team.
Duke played in the weakest of all the major conferences this season—by a considerable margin. Honestly, I think Houston has a much better chance of beating Duke by 20 than Duke does of winning the game. We can have a cold shooting night and still win against good teams because our defense shows up every game.
Their freshmen are talented, no doubt, but they’re about to face something they haven’t seen before. We’ll see how they handle it. If they rise to the challenge, it’ll be a close game. If they don’t, they will look like Tennessee did yesterday.
Duke gets a lot of media love, mostly because of Flagg. The refs will definitely favor them, so our guys need to be mentally prepared—stay disciplined, avoid dumb fouls, and don’t get caught up in bad calls. Let this board vent about that stuff instead.
That’s a man that’s been to the Houston campus several times. Lazy analysis would have said “Cullen Street Bullies” because that’s where the Arena is but if you’ve been to campus, you know Scott Street is much more intimidating
This had already been accomplished with the 2021 FF. But you can take it further n see how many programs have made multiple FF within same decade, but then again in seperate decades.
Houston – 60’s-- 67,68 ; 80s-- 82,83,84
2020’s – 21, 25.
